z_Feb21st


US Natural Gas & Heating Weather Forecast


Strong Storm Over Eastern US (click)

Impressive Arctic Blast Coming Next Week (click)


 

 

Forecast Summary: (Feb 21st – 27th) A strong springlike storm continues to track into the eastern US with a line of showers and strong thunderstorms along the cold front and heavy snowfall over the Great Lakes. This is a massive storm in terms of the number of regions it encompasses, as it stretches from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. While the initial cold blast that follows in it’s wake won’t be super impressive, it will open the door for much colder ones to come. Saturday will be relatively quiet and temperate before a return to the deep freeze begins to unfold. A very strong Canadian cold front will sweep across the northern Plains and Midwest Sunday, ushering in temperatures well blow zero and brisk winds. A dangerously cold and more impressive Arctic is expected to follow Tuesday through Thursday for the highest use states of the northern US. This still looks like the real deal as far as extreme and potentially record breaking cold, which will lead to very high nat gas and heating demand. Of concern are temperatures dropping to -25°F across the Great Lakes region and well below zero for portions of the Northeast. In addition, single digits and teens are expected to advance deep into the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Southeast, exacerbating demand. Wherever the Arctic front stalls over the southeastern US late next week, a wintry mess of precipitation is likely to set up. We expect the cold to become anchored over the US through March 3rd before a very exciting weather pattern sets up.

 

 

Friday Mid-Day Weather: Thursday Night Weather: A massive springlike storm will be tracking through the central US with showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and heavy snowfall into the Midwest. Note the strong packing of isobars over the Great Lakes.  When the isobar lines are packed tight, very strong winds develop.  This powerful storm will track into the eastern US Friday. The "big" warm up is almost already over as cold air will be filtering in on the backside of the storm. The northwestern US will continue to see a moist Pacific flow.

Friday Weather: A massive springlike storm will be tracking through the US with showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and heavy snowfall into the Midwest. Note the strong packing of isobars over the Great Lakes. When the isobar lines are packed tight, very strong winds develop. The “big” warm up is almost already over as cold air will be filtering in on the backside of the storm.

 

 

8 -14 Day Outlook

8-14 Day Outlook Summary: (Feb 28th – March 6th) A dangerously cold Arctic blast will be anchored over the highest use nat gas and heating states of the northern US to start the outlook period. These very cold temperatures will hold through March 4th with the Midwest and Northeast experiencing temperatures 10-25°F colder than normal, with less extreme, but still unseasonably cold conditions pushing deep into the Southeast. High pressure over much of the US will lead to mild and dry conditions with Pacific storms arriving late in the outlook.

 

natual gas weather

8-14 Outlook: Much colder than normal over the eastern US as a brutally cold pattern returns to the highest nat gas use states of the Midwest and Northeast. Chilly temperatures will push deep into the Southeast. Warmer and drier weather will impact much of the West.

 

8-14 Day Outlook Details: (Feb 28th – March 6th): An impressive potentially record setting Arctic blast will be impacting much of the central and eastern US to start the outlook period. Brutally cold conditions with temperatures well below zero are expected over the Midwest and portions of the Northeast for at least the first 5 days of the outlook. There is no doubt very high nat gas demand will occur over the highest use states of the northern US. What is still in question is exactly how far the cold will be able to advance into the Southeast. Battle lines will be drawn in the vicinity of Tennessee/N. Carolina as a very sharp transition to extremely cold temperatures will occur just to the north with much milder above freezing conditions to the south. It will be a slugfest all week to see how far the cold can advance into the southern US, making forecasting temperatures in this region tricky. We still expect the cold to hold through March 3rd before a very exciting weather pattern sets up to close out the first week of March. We believe this will play out with some very powerful winter storms tracking the nation with a bias toward cold temperatures remaining across the northern US. This March pattern will cause the forecast models to struggle, leading to whipsawing national forecasts and frustration for market players trying to plan ahead.

 

Natural Gas & Heating Demand: MODERATE Days 1-3. HIGH-VERY HIGH 4-15.

 

Weather Market Threat: Days 1-15: VERY HIGH Days 1 – 15.

 

Market Effect: (Feb 21st) – Thursday ended up being a consolidation day for the nat gas markets as they struggled to find direction after the morning weekly storage report. It came in line with expectations as the period brought in a draw of -250 Bcf. After the initial sell off seemingly because the number wasn’t bigger, the market spiked higher before selling to close the day. We believe it is certain very cold air is coming to the northern US for a solid week long period. How far the cold pushes toward the Southeast is really the only thing in question. The cold next week across the northern US is going to bring a very big draw after muted demand this past week. However, the combination of the two will still be bringing reserves to right near 1.0 Tcf by early March. Then there are still another 3 weeks and all of April to endure and it’s very unlikely a prolonged 30-50 day warm up will miraculously appear, especially when the pattern to close out the first week of March looks mighty active with very cold air over the northern US or lurking very close by in southern Canada. Would you want to be short this market going into the weekend with a nasty Arctic blast barreling down, cold looking to hold through the first week of March, and reserves continuing to plummet and distance further from the 5 year minimum? We think not, and believe today could be a very telling day as those short the market could be forced to make a mad rush for the exits.

 

Selected Weather Images:

 

 

The image shows snowfall accumulations over the next two days. The Great Lakes region will see the heaviest snowfall amounts as the storng winter storm barrels through. Amounts into the purples and whites are more than 6" of snowfall. Temperatures will actually relatively mild compared to late even though heavy snow will be falling.

The image shows snowfall accumulations over the next two days. The Great Lakes region will see the heaviest snowfall amounts as the storng winter storm barrels through. Amounts into the purples and whites are more than 6″ of snowfall. Temperatures will actually relatively mild compared to late even though heavy snow will be falling.

 

naturall gas weather

Do the markets realize how impressive next weeks cold will be? If the following image plays out, this Arctic outbreak would bring extremely cold temperatures right over the highest use states of the northern US as temperatures well below zero, like -20 to -30F below. It would then take days for the cold to moderate if there were no reinforcing cold blasts to follow, but there likely will be. This clearly should support prices. Image is temperatures next Thursday just off the surface in Celsius. Dark blues and purples is extremely cold, yellows and oranges represent dangerously cold.

 

 

natural gas weather

By this weekend temperatures will return to below normal temperatures across the highest use nat gas states of the Midwest and Northeast, which will bring another surge in demand.

 

 

 

natural gas weather

By Friday the next Canadian cold blast will already be sweeping into the Midwest. The image shows overnight lows Friday into Saturday as below freezing temperatures return to the Midwest and eventually Northeast.

 

 

natural gas weather

We don’t care how you slice it. The last week of February will be cold for the northern US. The ECMWF vs GFS for the last week pattern shows a cold trough anchored over the region but differ slightly on how extreme the cold will be. Either way its cold.

 

natural gas weather

By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week a brutally cold air mass will likely be pushing through the northern US. Like ouch cold. This will also bring several days of single digit and teen readings deep into the southern US

 

 

natural gas weather

We have been calling for a very active pattern to close out the first week of March. We still see it that way and the latest forecast continues to oblige, producing a massive winter storm. We are not saying this storm is going to set up like this, merely the pattern favors it developing in some fashion. The image shows a storm Feb 4th tracking through the central US. Shaded is rain or melted snow in inches. Very cold air will remain over the northern US but may try to moderate at times over the eastern US as storm winter storms spin up.

 

natural gas weather

The image shows regions of colder or warmer temperatures than normal on March 5th. The northern and eastern US will still be cooler than normal, but not as extreme compared to a few days earlier. Temperatures should still remain around 10 degrees colder than normal across the highest use states of the Midwest and Northeast.