Weekly Storage Report Weather Conditions

Written by on February 26, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Active Pattern To Be Factored Into Coming Weekly Storage Report

 

The coming weekly storage report will be factoring in a very active but milder pattern.  The draw period (Feb 14 – Feb 21) started as a strong Nor’easter was pushing off the Northeast coat with another few weather systems immediately on its heels.  The second storm dropped a swath of moderate snowfall accumulating several inches across much of the Midwest and Northeast .  Both these systems allowed reinforcing blasts of chilly air into the highest use nat gas and heating states of the northern US.  However, the southern US and much of the Plains were quite mild most of the period with widespread temperatures of 60s and 70s occurring daily.  A strong springlike then storm tracked across the central US the last few days of the draw period (Wed-Fri morning) with a line of powerful thunderstorms over the southern US and heavy snowfall into the Midwest.  This allowed a surge of milder temperatures to briefly push into the Ohio Valley and portions of the Northeast, easing demand late in the week.  Very cold air was to arrive at the very end of this draw period and will be factored into the coming report.  We don’t expect the coming draw to be nearly as big as recent draws due to the milder conditions across much of the US besides the north.  The Midwest and Northeast experienced below normal temperatures throughout, just not exceptionally so.  Estimates of the coming draw are around -100 Bcf, which would bring reserves down to 1343 Bcf.  With the next two following draws factoring colder conditions, they are expected to bring a combined -310-350 Bcf, dropping supplies to 1000 Bcf before mid-March.  The following images highlight the major weather events that played out over the storage draw week along with temperatures and temperature anomalies.

 

 

 

natural gas weather

Friday Morning Water Vapor Satellite Image to start the draw period as a Nor’easter (1) was leaving the Northeast a new weaker storm (3)  on its heels and high pressure building into the Plains (4) for a nice warm up.

 

natural gas weather

Tuesday Afternoon Weather: A winter storm tracked through the Northeast with areas of moderate snowfall. Most areas received 2-5″ of accumulation, locally more. Immediate locations near the coast saw a rain/snow mix. Mild conditions dominated the central US with wet Pacific storms slamming the northwestern US.

 

 

Thursday Afternoon Weather: A massive springlike storm will be tracking through the central US with showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and heavy snowfall into the Midwest. This powerful storm will track into the eastern US Friday. The "big" warm up is almost already over as cold air will be filtering in on the backside of the storm. The northwestern US will continue to see a moist Pacific flow.

Thursday Afternoon Weather: A massive springlike storm tracked through the central US with showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and heavy snowfall into the Midwest.

 

 

natural gas weather

Here’s an image of the big warm up. High pressure briefly pushed into the Great Lakes and eastern US Thursday to end the draw, allowing temperatures to warm into the 40s and 50s. That’s it. Very cold conditions are being tapped on the back side of the storm which pushed through much of the northern US Friday after the draw close. The image shows temperatures a few thousand feet off the ground in Celsius. Dark blues and purples represent very cold air with temperatures dropping into the single digits and below zero (F) at the surface.

emperature anomaly for the week

The image shows temperature anomalies based off of averaging temperatures for the entire draw period week.  Only the Midwest and Northeast experienced below normal temperatures as the rest of the US was quite mild.  But it was over the highest use nat gas and heating states with temperatures still quite chilly at night.  These regions were chilly throughout the week, just not exceptionally so.

Temperatures were chilly over the Midwest and Northeast to start the draw period but gradually warmed as a central US storm approached. The southern US into the Plains were quite mild as well as the west.

Temperatures were chilly over the Midwest and Northeast to start the draw period but gradually warmed as a central US storm approached. The southern US into the Plains were quite mild as well as the west.

 

 

 

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