Weekend Weather Data Trends Milder

Written by on November 18, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, November 19: Sunday afternoon the European model came to the rescue with a colder trending run at the last minute to make the GFS model that lost a considerable amount of HDD’s over the weekend not look quite as bad. However, in the overnight data, both the European and GFS models lost an additional 9 HDD’s. This keeps the GFS milder than the European model overall by numerous HDD’s. The overnight data really needed to show Sunday afternoon’s colder trend in the European model would hold and failed to. It was also up to the GFS model to not lose any additional demand or gain some back so it wouldn’t look as bearish, which it also failed to do. Prices gapped 4-5 cents lower on the open and lost an additional 3 cents on the milder overnight data. All datasets continue to show numerous weather systems/cool shots into the US in the weeks ahead, they just aren’t as cold as the data showed Friday. It probably didn’t help prices on the reopen that weekend production were back just under all time highs after last week’s freeze-offs. Overall, a very active pattern with numerous weather system and bouts of cooling across the US the next several weeks. It’s just that they aren’t as impressively cold or won’t push as aggressively into the eastern US as the data showed last week for Nov 22-28th.

The overnight GFS data showing a milder trend.


 

 

The GFS model also isn’t as cold around the start of Decmeber with a zonal flow across the US and very cold air too far north. The European model is colder for early December so that needs watching.

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