Weekend Northeast Storm Update

Written by on December 11, 2013 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Two weather system are expected to merge over the central US Friday and Saturday and bring a sloppy mix of precipitation across the eastern US through the weekend. There is still a bit of uncertainty on how well the two storms phase together, as some of the data suggests the milder and more moist southern storm will not get drawn up far enough north to lead to impressive snowfall over the Northeast. The more likely scenario is the two will partially phase and lead to a nice band of wintry precipitation moving through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. The most likely scenario is 4-8″ of snow would fall across much of New England, but could be over 10″ if things phase better. The Southeast is going to get hit by moderate to heavy precipitation regardless. The two could still phase perfectly, leading to a very strong storm through New England, but that is looking less likely (about a 20% chance).  Either way, big natural gas and heating draws should be expected this weekend, but the total impact is still a bit up in the air.

 

Two weather systems will merge over the eastern US this weekend.  How far north moisture from the southern one gets absorbed into the northern one will determine where the heaviest precipitation falls.

Two weather systems will merge over the eastern US this weekend. How far north moisture from the southern one gets absorbed into the northern one will determine where the heaviest precipitation falls.

 

Shaded is precipitation Saturday afternoon into the evening.  A nice band of wintry precipitation will be moving through the Northeast with chilly moderate to heavy rains across the Southeast.

Shaded is precipitation Saturday afternoon into the evening. A nice band of wintry precipitation will be moving through the Northeast with chilly moderate to heavy rains across the Southeast.

 

Numerous potential scenarios on where the heaviest preciptiation falls in the Northeast.  Some solutions show a nice band of wintry precipitation over New England, a few others try to keep it further south and east.

Numerous potential scenarios on where the heaviest preciptiation falls in the Northeast over 72 hours ending Sunday evening. Some solutions show a nice band of wintry precipitation over New England, a few others try to keep it further south and east. Green areas indicate where close to an inch of precipitation could fall (rain or melted snow).  If the green band sets up along the coast, 6-10″ of snow is likely.

 

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