Wednesday Pattern Update

Written by on June 11, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments
Mid-Day Pattern Update

 

Mid-Day Update: The operational GFS has just finished coming in and there are no surprises through next week. Weather data continues to support a very nice warm up over all of the central and eastern US with mid 80s push into the Midwest and Northeast. The southern US will become hot with temperatures 90-105F, but not significantly warmer than normal. There is still plenty of data to suggest there could be a tropical cyclone moving into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This should be closely watched going into the weekend for potential surprises while the markets are closed. For entertainment purposes, today’s operational GFS run did bring a decent trough into the Northeast around the 25th of June and also picks up the tropical system coming out of the Gulf and blows it up into a super-storm that tracks along the Northeast coast. Highly unlikely but may cause some buzz. We do think the real nice build weather over the past few weeks along with a couple more big builds to come are good reason for the recent sell off. But we again caution, the weather models are really struggling and there are lots of ways the pattern can play out after June 20th. We expect the ridge to hold over the central and eastern US or get pushed toward the interior west and Plains. Either way, much warmer temperatures are to come. But it will be up to the ridge to keep weather systems from pushing too deep into the northern US for more impressive heat to set up if big market players are going to be expected to be scared by weather patterns. Although a hurricane never hurts. We still believe there is potential for this weeks build to come in light, the heat holds after next week, and a tropical system tracks into the Gulf. Not impossible and should be considered if you are short the market.

 

Attached Images:

 

1)Need to keep an eye on tropical wave as it could strengthen as it tracks toward the Gulf.

 

2) The operational GFS this morning developed a super storm over the Northeast coast after a weather system absorbs a tropical circulation.

 

 

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