Wednesday Mid Day Pattern Update

Written by on May 28, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Wednesday, 1:30 pm EDT


Mid Day Update: The latest forecast data is again trending to our hotter forecast for the second week of June. This should bring temperatures of 90s and 100s across much of the southwestern US, including Texas and portions of the southern Plains and South. Until then, warm temperatures over the much of the southern and central US the next few days will lead to decent cooling demand. Pockets of cool conditions exist, namely over the Pac NW and Northeast due to influencing weather systems. Next weeks weather should be mild but not hot over much of the US and will bring good nat gas build weather. This coming weeks build will likely be 110-115 Bcf and the weather this week will be a bit warmer and should drop the numbers slightly for next report. Therefore, the next three builds should all be near or over 100 Bcf, and thus the reason for thinking weather patterns are not very bullish. The past few days up move in the markets, like last week, is a bit baffling. Options and futures expiration, such as is occurring this week, often lead to counter or volatile moves. Regardless the reason, prices are now in a tricky spot. Ideally there would been a bit of a sell off before the threat of significant heat reaches the big market players and thus providing an opportunity to go long. Maybe that will still happen, but word will be getting out as confidence grows that the heat we have been expecting is becoming more likely. How the markets react to the developing threat of heat in the face of the biggest builds of the season makes coming price action very tricky.





heat still building second week of June.

The heat is still expected to build during the second week of June, especially over the south-central US.  The image shows temperatures in Celsius a few thousand feet off the surface.  Purples indicate a very hot atmosphere capable of bringing 95-105F heat.

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