Weather Systems Mid-Week Ease Demand, Although Hotter US Pattern Still On Track June 28-July 4

Written by on June 22, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, June 22:  July’20 nat gas futures closed 3¢ higher Friday at $1.67.  The weekend weather data remained not quite hot enough for the middle of this week due to weather systems tracking across the Midwest and east-central US.   However, the data held a hot enough pattern June 28-July 4 as upper high pressure is still expected to expand to cover the eastern 2/3 of the US for strong national demand. We mentioned in Friday’s midday update we expected the weekend weather data was likely to hold the hotter set up June 28-July 4th, which it did as both the GFS and European models were less than 1 CDD changed. This hotter pattern not backing off could be reason if prices open higher. Although, LNG feedgas/exports are likely to remain weak and near 4 Bcf/day, a greater than 50% decrease compared to just a few months ago. This highlights there’s still negative demand elements in place.  How long this hotter June 28-July 4 pattern lasts is of considerable interest as some of the data suggests cooler air will try to return into the East around July 5-8, but quite a ways out where changes are likely.

Monday-Tuesday: Early week highs over the East will we rather hot with upper 80s to 90s for stronger demand. It’s also quite hot over the West into Texas. However, fresh weather systems will be arriving into the Midwest/Central US with very comfortable highs of upper 60s to lower 80s.

 

Weather systems will track into the east-central US/Great Lakes mid-week for lighter demand.

 

A strong upper ridge is still expected to bring very warm to hot conditions over much of the US June 28-July 4 for strong national demand. Cooler exceptions will be along the West Coast.

 

Both the GFS and European weather models were not quite hot enough Wed-Fri due to weather systems over the northern and east-central US, but then hot enough June 28-July 4.

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