Weather Patterns Still Not Hot Enough

Written by on July 29, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, July 29: The weekend weather data was little changed with the GFS adding a mere 1 CDD, which means holding a comfortable pattern across the Midwest and east-central US much of the next two weeks as weather systems arrive with showers and cooling in a rather bearish set up. The European model remains notably hotter with the pattern than the rest of the data but has been running too hot in recent weeks. But even in the European model’s current state of being 20 CDD’s hotter than the GFS, it’s still likely not considered hot enough since it also forecasts bouts of cooling across the Midwest and east-central US. Essentially, no change to our view as weather sentiment maintains a bearish bias until the hot upper ridge expands out of the western and central US and back across the Great Lakes and East/Southeast. The latest data suggests a more intimidating US pattern shouldn’t be expected until after August 10-11th at the earliest.

Highs will again be comfortable as fresh weather systems arrive over the Midwest and Ohio Valley this week. 


Another cool shot late in the week to keep the Midwest and east-central US rather comfortable with highs of 70s to lower 80s.


The pattern August 6-11 continues to favor weathe systems and mostly comfortable conditions across the eastern 1/3 of the US and why the pattern isn’t hot enough even the West into Texas will be regionally hot. Until the East again becomes hot, the pattern will maintain a bearish lean.

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