Weather Models Continue to Trend Colder

Written by on November 14, 2018 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Wednesday, Nov 14:  The European Ensemble data trends colder overnight, again playing catch up to colder GFS, now also seeing a shorter and weaker break Nov 22-24 before colder air returns. European Ensemble National Gas Weighted HDD’s 15-day run total added 12 vs Tuesday Afternoon & 14 vs 24-hours ago.  The GFS model also trended colder overnight, with both showing better potential for cold air returning into the US Nov 25-28, although exactly which regions remains uncertain.  First image is a graph from the European ensemble data showing daily HDD’s vs 12 & 24-hours ago and vs 30-year average.  Second image shows the brief break around Nov 22-23 and it being shorter in duration with one weather system exiting and the next already pushing into the Plains.   Last image highlights troughing over the Midwest to Northeast, although it could end up being more central and east-central US with next round of cooling Nov 25-28.

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