Weather Data Reverses Back Milder

Written by on February 28, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Friday, February 28: April’20 nat gas futures closed sharply lower by 8¢ Thursday, aided by warmer trending weather data and a rather large/bearish EIA storage report miss. The overnight weather data trended further milder with the GFS losing more than 10 HDD’s and the already warmer European model losing 3-4 HDD’s. Both are now quite bearish with the pattern late this weekend through the middle of March with only glancing shots of cold air across the far northern US and mild to warm over the rest of the country with highs mostly in the 50s to 80s for very light late winter demand. Bulls just can’t get a break this winter season with weather patterns trending milder in time in almost every instance where cold teases it might last more than several days. It certainly helps the supply/demand balance has tightened considerably, but to fully cash in, weather patterns need to cooperate, and they simply haven’t all winter.

Big milder trends the past few days have led to national daily HDD’s dropping well below/warmer than normal. 


Highs next week will be mild over most of the US with 40s to 80s and very little 30s, much too warm for late winter.


The March 8-13 pattern faovrs mild conditions over most of the US with highs of 50s to 80s for light demand.

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