Weather Data Maitains Chilly US Pattern Feb 27-March 2 But Too Mild Before & After

Written by on February 24, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, February 24: The weekend weather data was little changed to slightly milder trending. But overall, the timing of major weather features to impact the US the next 15-days remained on track with much of the country mild early this week, even as numerous weather systems bring rain and snow showers. Colder air will then sweep into the west-central US mid-week and across the eastern half of the country during the second half of the week for a surge in national demand. However, mild conditions are still expected to return across most of the country March 3-7th for a swing back to light national demand and where the pattern remains bearish biased. Essentially, a chilly pattern held for Feb 27-March 2, but still too mild before and after. With that said, the weather data shed a hefty amount of demand/HDD’s during the second half of last week and didn’t gain any back over the weekend, essentially holding bearish trends from last week. But do consider there are many other important market factors that could impact early week trade, such as whether the balance tightened further over the weekend, and if there’s been any new cancelled LNG exports, either due to warm conditions over much of the Northern Hemisphere this winter or from the coronavirus. In addition, there’s also expiration of Mar’20 contracts Tue-Wed that could lead to quick price swings. So, plenty of items that could impact nat gas trade this week.

Weather map for Monday with very little cold air over the US besides the N. Plains.

 

Temperatures for today, Monday, Feb 24. Mild most of US with only cool air across the N-C US.

 

A strong cold shot midweek into the central US will shift over the eastern half of the country for the second half of the week for a surge in national demand.

 

A mild pattern is forecast to return March 3-6 across most of the US besides the very far north for a swing back to lighter national demand and where the pattern isn’t cold enough.

 

The graph of daily national forecast HDD’s from the European model sums up the coming 15-days well. Cold enouhg Feb 27-March 2, but too mild before and after.

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