Weather Data Advertises Colder Shots Into Northern US for Mid-October

Written by on October 2, 2018 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, October 2:   The overnight weather data continues to advertise at least modest cooling across the northern US Oct 14-17. The European model was a bit colder than the GFS, but with both still showing at least modest cooling arriving across the northern US for stronger heating demand as HDD’s increase. we expect the nervousness of the markets due to impressive storage deficits are going to produce volatile sessions in the weeks ahead where sharp daily price swings of 5-10¢ will be common, with the direction often dependent on colder or warmer trends.  Image shows heat signature off the surface around Oct 15.

Most of the weather data sees cooling spread across the US for mid-October, such as the top 4 panels depict. There’s a smaller camp of data that suggests the warm ridge over the eastern US holds, such as the bottom two panels. The cooler scenario is preferred but does need close watching in case the warmer eastern US camp were to gain momentum.




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