Warmer US Weather Coming Next Week

Written by on July 30, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments
Wednesday’s Mid-Day Update

 

Mid Day Update: The latest operational GFS model has just come in and it is very consistent with the pattern through next week but then holds the ridge slightly stronger than previous runs over the northern US during the second week of August. This would result in slightly warmer temperatures. The pattern is still looking to be a very sloppy one with numerous weather systems traversing the US with showers, thunderstorms, and pockets of cooler than normal temperatures. But as we have been saying, it continues to look like a much warmer overall US pattern, especially over Texas and the high demand states of the Southeast. There will still be chilly Canadian air lurking just across the border and will likely test the ridge at some point in mid-August. Bearish weather headwinds should remain strong into early next week and then ease as 90s and 100s become more widespread over the southern US, with mid and upper 80s into the northern US apart from areas affecting by showers and storms. This week’s cool blast and southern Plains rainstorm will bring another much larger than normal build for next week after what is expected to be around a 90-93 Bcf build for tomorrow. Yesterday’s late day spike seems like a late day exit from August positions as prices have returned right back to key support at the $3.75 we have been mentioning for days. It seems at some point it will take this out if it flirts with it long enough and there could be a bevy of stops waiting to be triggered just below.
 

Attached Images:
 
1) Warming next week
2) A much warmer, but sloppy US pattern going into mid-August

 
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