Warmer US Temperatures Next Week

Written by on August 15, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Mid Day Update:  Nat gas prices are again down sharply today as
yesterday’s rally was indeed used by the Big’s to sell it.  This clearly
puts $3.75 in jeopardy.  There are some changes showing up in the
weather data and it has to do with the pattern at the end of August.  We
are still expecting numerous weather systems to track across the US over
the coming week, with each one getting a little warmer.  Eventually high
pressure will build into the Midwest and eastern US by late next week
with widespread 80s. There will be a Canadian weather system tracking
toward the northern Rockies at the same time around August 25-26th and
this will be an important system to watch as it will dictate how the
rest of August plays out. There is becoming more convincing evidence the
ridge holds over the eastern US and provides a bit longer stretch of
warmer temperatures. This will bring the August 26th cool blast into
many less important low use nat gas states. This would be viewed as more
bullish as stronger cooling demand would continue over the southern and
eastern US where higher nat gas demand states are located.  With prices
selling off, we now think there is likely enough momentum to take out
$3.75, but we would be a little cautious about it going too much lower
than that as bearish weather headwinds will be easing quite a bit next
week.  If the ridge holds it could even turn slightly bullish,
especially if highs in the 90s can in fact become established over the
Northeast.

 

Attached Image:
 

1) The most important thing to watch in coming weather patterns is what
happens when a Canadian cold front pushes into the north-central US
August 25th-26th.

 

 

 

aug15midday

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