Warmer Trends Continue Into 1st Week of January

Written by on December 24, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, December 24: Jan’20 nat gas futures gapped lower after the weekend break on milder trends, and continued lower early Monday on further milder trends. The overnight data trended even further milder with both the GFS and European models losing another 3-5 HDD’s, including for the important first week of January. No changes overall with an exceptionally warm and bearish pattern over most of the US besides the West through the coming weekend. A quick cool shot is still expected across the Midwest and Northeast the last couple days of December but not very cold or impressive. Additional cold shots are expected into the western and northern US the first week of January, it’s just the weather data has trended less impressive with the amount of subfreezing air into the US and also doesn’t advance cold air as far southward or eastward, especially in the European model.

This image shows the weather pattern for Christmas Day with much warmer than normal conditions over the US besides the West Coast.

 

Highs Christmas Day with very little cold air over the US besides the N. Plains and portions of West. Much too warm Texas to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Mild Chicago to NYC.

 

The overnight GFS vs European model comparisono shows the European model quite bearish the next 15-days. The GFS is bearish through Jan 3, then colder.

Leave a Comment