Warm Pattern Dec 4-12, but Cold Looming Dec 13-16?

Written by on December 2, 2020 in NatGasWeather - 1 Comment

Wednesday, December 2:    Jan’21 nat gas futures sold off early Tuesday, then rallied back to near flat.  Prices were initially lower after the European model shed more than 15 HDD’s but likely bounced on LNG feedgas reaching fresh all-time highs near 11 Bcf/day.  The overnight weather data held a mild pattern and warmer trends for next week but was a little colder trending Dec 12-15th and where the data continues to tease a pattern change towards more impressive cold shots into the US.  This December 13-16th is the best chance in a while for sustained stronger than normal demand.   Although, the nat gas markets will have to slog through 9 days of red/bearish maps before then.  Essentially, there’s plenty of time for changes in the 12-15 day period, including the potential for the weather data to back off on cold prospects for mid-December.  But for today, the pattern continues to tease something cold enough Dec 13-16th.  When weather finally does cooperate, the tighter year over year supply/demand balance will lead to larger than normal draws.

Dec 4-12: A mild overall US pattern with temperatures above normal over many regions. It will be a touch cool across the East at times, but overall, much lighter than normal demand.


Stronger cold shots coming in mid-December.


Both the GFS and EC weather models are simply not cold enough Dec 4-12 but cold enough Dec 13-16. The GFS is a bit more bearish comparatively.


One Comment on "Warm Pattern Dec 4-12, but Cold Looming Dec 13-16?"

  1. Paul December 2, 2020 at 9:55 am ·

    Great analysis as always however, a correction is necessary. On your Nat Gas in Underground Storage feature on the right of the screen you state the November 25th draw as -20 it was actually -18.I hope to subscribe in 2021, is your price for all your services $119.00 US? Also is it OK to give a credit card over the phone from Canada? Cheers, Paul.

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