Waiting On Summer Heat

Written by on June 10, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, June 10:   The weekend weather data maintained a rather unimpressive pattern through mid-June, but some of the models continues to tease hotter patterns trying to gain in coverage the last ten days of June.  However, the important European model is not one of them and remains to the cooler side.  Weather pattern will be considered bearish until widespread heat across the southern and eastern US returns.  Until then, an unseasonably strong and large weather system will sweep across the northern and central US the next several days with highs of 60s and 70s, far from cold, but cooler than normal. This will shift the upper heat dome of US across the West Coast and Southwest with highs of upper 80s to 100s for locally strong demand. But more importantly, the consequence of this largescale central and northern US weather system will be to weaken upper high pressure over Texas, the South, and Southeast for cooler than normal conditions as highs drop out of the hot 90s and into the comfortable upper 70s and 80s for lighter than normal demand.  While it will be a touch crisp across portions of the northern US the next several nights with lows of 40s, it’s still expected to be quite comfortable from Chicago to NYC with highs of 70s and 80s.  Temperatures will warm over the southern US this weekend and next week, but the upper ridge needs to be hotter to break the streak of larger than normal builds in supplies.  We continue to look to late June for the next opportunity but with more of the weather data needing to come on board if its to be expected. 
 

Monday’s weather pattern with a large cool front sweeping across the northern and central US, including pushing cooling deep into the southern US.


 

Highs Tuesday: Just not hot enough besides the West Coast into the Southwest as much of Texas, the South, and Southeast cool into the comfortable 80s.


 

Next 7-day temperatures vs normal: Not hot enough east of the Rockies!


 

15-Day HDD/CDD Forecast: Both GFS and European models not hot enough through Jun 18, but GFS still teases hotter training to gain in coverage after.

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