Very Warm w/Light Demand This Weekend, Although Cooler Trend Mid-April

Written by on April 2, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments


 
 

Tuesday, April 2:  Tuesday: The overnight weather data was mixed with the GFS trending further colder April 10-14 seeing stronger weather systems across the central and northern US, while also lingering cool conditions across the Northeast longer. Statistically, the GFS data added a rather hefty 15 HDD’s to put it better in line with the already cooler European model that was little changed but not as cold over the Northeast for mid-April. Overall, the coming pattern is quite bearish late this week through early next week, then neutral April 11-15th. Although, the April 11-15th period had been considered bearish prior to recent cooler trends.  Images highlight the warm pattern this weekend into next week with widespread 70s and 80s over the southern and eastern and then the colder trending weather system across the northern US around April 11-12.  The final image is a graph that shows the European and GFS ensemble daily forecast HDD + CDD totals and you will note they are fairly similar for the next 15-days.   What stands out most is the very warm/bearish demand this weekend through early next week and then a little stronger demand as cooling arrives over the central and northern US April 11-14, which had been warmer in previous days and has trended towards neutral.

Temperature anomalies this weekend.

 

Highs Sunday

Stronger cool shot across northern US April 11-13.

Daily forecast HDD+CDD totals from the European and GFS ensemble data highlighting a light demand pattern this weekend into next week and then neutral for mid-April due to recent cooler trends.

 

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