Very Light National Demand Next 15-Days

Written by on September 20, 2021 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, September 20:  Oct’21 nat gas prices spiked to $5.65 mid-last week, then plummeted Thu-Fri by 55¢ to close at $5.10.  The weekend weather data lost a few more TDDs, thereby maintaining a bearish pattern into early October for much larger builds, potentially as large as 95-100+ Bcf for EIA weekly reports 3 and 4 out.  Production has been slow to recover in the wake of Hurricane Ida several weeks ago but has increased back over 90 Bcf/day.  Bigger picture, with 2-3 straight weeks of light to very light national demand about to play out, this will keep end of injection season supplies on track to reach 3.5 Tcf, with the potential analysts’ increase estimates after the past two builds printed larger than normal, and with 90-100+ Bcf builds to come.  Our Nat Gas Flux Index dropped to the neutral range for the first time in nearly 6-months after being solidly to the bullish side, suggesting the balance has loosened, potentially due to US production being a little stronger than stated.   For Sunday/Monday’s trade, we are interested in if Oct’21 prices remain above $5.

Our Live HDD/CDD data shows below normal HDD/CDD totals after Monday for very light national demand.

 

The weather pattern for late September into the start of October favors very nice temperatures over most of the US with highs of upper 60s to 80s and with very little coverage of 90s for very light national demand.

 

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