Tuesday Morning January Pattern Update

Written by on December 24, 2013 in NatGasWeather - No comments

A Big Warm Up Is Still In The Cards For Much Of The US The Second Week Of January

 

We have been forecasting the potential for a big pattern change around the 6th or 7th of January since last week and we are more convinced than ever it will take place.  While it is still a ways out and very well could not end up happening, each new suite of  meteorological data continues to support our view by obliging us with forecast scenarios that exactly matches what we would expect to occur if such a big pattern shift were to take place.   We still believe there will be one or two more cold outbreaks for the northern and eastern US the first week of January, one around the 2-3rd and the potentially final one around the 5th into the 6th.  Thereafter, the reservoir of cold air from northern Canada looks to finally turn off.  Around the 7th we see cold air retreating out of the US while a much more active Pacific jet stream begins to finally push toward the west coast.  This should allow much milder conditions to set up over the central and eastern US, significantly easing nat gas and heating demand.   It is also very likely that above freezing conditions could also push well into the Midwest and New England.  We realize it’s dangerous to make calls for such big pattern changes that are still more than two weeks out, but the data continues to support the potential and the odds statistically keep going up with each passing day.  Until we start seeing data that shows it likely won’t happen, our forecast will not deviate.  We continue to believe the market have yet to price in the potential for such a big pattern change and likely won’t for several more days as forecasts and players struggle due to whipsawing forecast models.

 

 

This is the expected overall weather pattern for around January 7th-8th.  The forecast models keep coming around to our way of thinking with each new suite of forecast data.  The most recent runs are becoming more confident a big pattern change could be in the offing.  This image shows the last cold oubreak fizzling over the Norheast while high pressure shifts toward the central US as the jet stream and associated storm track approach the west coast.

This is the expected overall weather pattern for around January 7th-8th. The forecast models keep coming around to our way of thinking with each new suite of forecast data. The most recent runs are becoming more confident a big pattern change could be in the offing. This image shows the last cold oubreak fizzling over the Norheast while high pressure shifts toward the central US as the jet stream and associated storm track approach the west coast.

 

 

These are forecast solutions for January 7th showing warm and cold temperature anomalies will be located.  While there is still some data to support additional cold outbreaks, the trend has been for the forecast models to keep providing more scenarios that match we what we were expecting to begin taking place with much warmer conditions for much of the central and eastern US.

These are forecast solutions for January 7th showing where warm and cold temperature anomalies will be located. While there is still some data to support additional cold outbreaks (upper left), the trend has been for the forecast models to keep providing more scenarios that match we what we were expecting to begin taking place as much warmer conditions invade much of the central and eastern US (bottom two images and upper right).

 

 

Comments are closed.