Tuesday Mid Day March Pattern Update

Written by on March 4, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Chilly Conditions To Warm Late This Week Over Northern US…Several Cold Blasts To Follow

 

March 4th 1230 pm EST

A very sloppy weather pattern has set up over the US and will last into the weekend.  There will be many surges of warmer and colder air over the next week, providing wild swings in temperatures over the central and eastern US.   Of importance will be a fresh cold blast late Saturday and into Sunday for the northern US and a more impressive one after a a brief warm up early next week.  Timing wise, there will be a weak and fairly mild system tracking across the Midwest Wednesday followed by several days of warming temperatures.  Then a cold blast late Saturday into Sunday is expected followed by brief warming Monday into Tuesday before the more impressive Canadian cold outbreak sweeps into central US around Tuesday and lasts into the following weekend.  This should keep colder than normal conditions over the northern US through the middle of March with stronger winter storms setting up after this weekend.   We expect the active pattern to continue into the third week of March but there is still a lot of ways it can play out.   We would like to see a bit more convincing data that there will be sufficient cold air over Canada for weather systems to tap into for much colder than normal conditions to continue over the highest use nat gas and heating states of the northern US.   We feel no matter how the pattern plays out it will likely lead to below normal temperatures for the northern US, but it may end up being near or just marginally colder than normal at times.   It’s quite easy for the southern US to warm into the 60s and 70s this time of year without any weather systems or cold fronts.  This will occur occasionally over the coming weeks, which will ease national nat gas and heating demand, but not enough to prevent supplies from dropping below 1.0 Tcf.

 

Warmer air is expected to surge into portions of the Midwest and Northeast Friday into Saturday, allowing temperatuers to warm to near normal.  It will be short lived as a cold front pushes into the northern US late Saturday into Sunday

Warmer air is expected to surge into portions of the Midwest and Northeast Friday into Saturday, allowing temperatures to warm to near normal. It will be short lived as a cold front pushes into the northern US late Saturday into Sunday.  You can see the cold air pooling over the Dakotas getting ready to advance late this weekend.

 

 

A fairly impressive cold blast is looking likely late Tuesday into Wednesday and has potential to push deep into the central and southern US.  This would bring 4-5 days of much colder than normal conditions over the Midwest and Northeast.

A fairly impressive cold blast is looking likely late Tuesday into Wednesday and has potential to push deep into the central and southern US. This would bring 4-5 days of much colder than normal conditions over the Midwest and Northeast. Very cold conditions are represented by dark blues and purples.

natural gas weather

The latest data continues to support strong storms moving through the central and eastern US around the 15th of March. The image shows a strong storm on March 17th. How much cold Canadian air these systems tap will be critical in determining how much colder than normal the northern US will be.

 

 

 

What is still uncertain is how much cold air will be over Canada after March 16th to be tapped by weather systems.  We are fairly confident a chilly pattern will set up March 11th-15th but then the data gets muddled on how the cold air plays out. The image shows many way the areas of colder or warmer than normal temperatures set up around the 18th of March.  We believe it will still be active but it just might be a milder flavor of it.

What is still uncertain is how much cold air will be over Canada after March 16th to be tapped by weather systems. We are fairly confident a chilly pattern will set up March 11th-15th but then the data gets muddled on how the cold air plays out. The image shows many way the areas of colder or warmer than normal temperatures set up around the 18th of March. We believe it will still be active but it just might be a milder flavor of it.

 

 

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