Monday Afternoon January Pattern Update

Written by on December 23, 2013 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Big Pattern Change Still Looks Possible For Second Week Of January

 

The weather patterns so far this winter season have been stuck in Groundhog’s Day; A huge trough over the eastern US bringing cold and unsettled weather while a stationary ridge of high pressure off the west coast deflects any Pacific storm from making it onshore.   The western US is going on it’s third year of extremely dry conditions and this years awful start has many worried, both from a water and wildfire perspective.  Many of the reservoirs are extremely low and water restriction may be coming very soon if the pattern doesn’t significantly change and bring heavy wet storms to the mountains.  The cold and unsettled conditions over much of the northern and eastern US the past several months has really pushed up natural gas and heating prices over a very short period of time.  While the West could use storms, much of the rest of the US could really use a break from below normal temperatures.  Unfortunately, this is not going to happen through the first week of January.  Another reinforcing shot of very cold Canadian air is likely to again effect the same regions around the 2-3rd of January.  However, as we mentioned last week, we continue to see signs the pattern will undergo a significant change around the 6th or 7th.  If what we are seeing proves true, much of the central and eastern US, including the Midwest, could see a much needed warm up, while the west coast may actually get some Pacific storms.   The forecast models are starting to come around to our way of thinking, giving us confidence we have been on the right track all along.  The markets have yet to price in the potential for a big warm up in mid January, and likely won’t for several more days, since it will take that long to get on their radar screens.  While it’s not certain it will play out, each day we continue to see more evidence that a major pattern change will unfold, which could catch the markets by surprise.

 

 

This is the expected weather pattern for January 3rd.  The same as its looked much of the past two months with a huge cold low over the Midwest and eastern US with a massive ridge setting up right along the west coast.

This is the expected weather pattern for January 3rd. The same as its looked much of the past two months with a huge cold low over the Midwest and eastern US with a massive ridge setting up right along the west coast.

 

This is the overall pattern for around January 7th.  As we have been mentioning, a big pattern change could be coming for the second week of January.  The forecast models are starting to come around to our way of thinking.  Notice how the jet stream is starting to move into the Pac NW coast while the cold air retreats into Canada.

This is the overall pattern for around January 7th. Shaded is temperatures in Celsius ~18.000 ft.  As we have been mentioning, a big pattern change could be coming for the second week of January. The forecast models are starting to come around to our way of thinking. Notice how the jet stream is starting to move into the Pac NW coast while the cold air retreats into Canada.

 

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