Thursday February Pattern Update

Written by on February 6, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Active Pattern To Continue With Bouts Of Snow and Cold For The Northern US…Then?

 

The coming pattern will remain active with bouts of snow and cold for the northern US.  Several weaker weather systems will track through the central and eastern US this weekend and into early next week with areas of light rain showers to the south and minor snowfall accumulations to the north.  Each system will also usher in fresh doses of chilly Canadian air, leading to high nat gas and energy demand.  We will need to carefully watch a storm coming out of the southern US during the middle of the week as it has the potential to ride up the eastern coastline and develop into a Nor’easter.  The track is will be tricky as a slightly more southern path will not allow it to wrap up enough to influence the Northeast with any might.  However, it could play out to be a fairly big snow storm if things phase nicely. The markets keep getting surprised by cold and snow events and this one could be the next one to catch it off guard.

 

There is much concern for how the end of February and beginning of March plays out due to tight reserves.  We have been saying the market could be in for a big surprise and we still see it that way.  We realize the markets have been hearing warmer weather is coming to the central and eastern US.  We believe that to be correct, but only for a few days.  It’s a trap.  The only period over the next two to three weeks where the central and eastern US will see a nice warm up will be around February 20-21st.  We believe the pattern will change after that to one that is all too familiar;  Warm in the west and the return of cold outbreaks to the northern and eastern US.  A pattern that would be sure to make the markets think about selling off too far.  We realize it is way out there, but there are many climate and weather signatures that are screaming don’t bite on the hype of a prolonged warm up.  How long will it take for the markets to realize cold conditions may continue into March, if they do care?

 

We will need to watch a storm coming out of the south-central US the middle of next week.  It has the potential to turn into a Nor'easter.  The slightest shift either way on the track would bring a feast or famine scenario.  The image shows the latest forecast bringing enough of the storm onshore for it bring accumulating snows to the Northeast.  Shaded is precipitation in inches of rain or melted snow over a 12 hour period next Thursday. Some chilly Canadian air will again follow,

We will need to watch a storm coming out of the south-central US the middle of next week. It has the potential to turn into a Nor’easter. The slightest shift either way on the track would bring a feast or famine scenario. The image shows the latest forecast bringing enough of the storm onshore for accumulating snows over the Northeast. Shaded is precipitation in inches of rain or melted snow over a 12 hour period next Thursday. Some chilly Canadian air will again follow.

 

Here is the pattern that will bring warmer conditions to the central and eastern US around the 21st.  We don't think it will last more than a few days.  At least nothing says convincingly it will last.

Here is the pattern that will bring warmer conditions to the central and eastern US around the 21st. We don’t think it will last more than a few days. At least nothing says convincingly it will last.

 

We think the coming mild pattern is a trap.  It makes more sense that the pattern goes right back where it started and we believe that will be a likley return to cold outbreaks for the Midwest and Northeast.

We think the coming mild pattern is a trap. It makes more sense that the pattern goes right back where it started and we believe that will be a likely return of cold outbreaks for the Midwest and Northeast. The image shows temperatures a few thousand feet off the ground in Celsius with blues and purples showing very cold temperatures.  What we see is the ridge building back into the western US and a trough returning to the central and eastern US. The arrows show what the flow of air would be if this type of pattern were to play out as cold would return to the northern US.

 

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