Swings in National Temperatures, But Demand Down on COVID-19

Written by on March 17, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, March 17:   Both the overnight 0z GFS and European models each lost 5-8 HDD’s on slight milder trends this weekend through the end of March.  Overall, no major changes with the pattern too mild this week, cold enough this weekend into Monday as a weather system over Canada drops into the central and northern US, then seasonal March 25-30 with bouts of cooling across the northern US but still quite comfortable across the southern US (graph above).  As is, it would take colder trends for next week and beyond for the pattern to be considered cold enough, although still with just enough demand across the northern US to be considered near seasonal.  Also of important consideration is national nat gas demand won’t be as strong the next several weeks due to widespread school and business closures.

 

No major changes with the pattern too mild this week, cold enough this weekend into Monday as a weather system over Canada drops into the central and northern US, then seasonal March 25-30 with bouts of cooling across the northern US but still quite comfortable across the southern US. As is, it would take colder trends for next week and beyond for the pattern to be considered cold enough, although still with just enough demand across the northern US to be considered near seasonal.

 

Warm vs normal conditions gain across most of the US during the middle of this week for light national demand.

 

Highs through Friday will be quite nice for late winter acoss most of the US besides the Far West and Far North.

 

Monday: A strong cold shot will push into the central US Friday, then across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast this weekend

 

The March 20-25 pattern favors slightly cool across the northern US, mild middle US, and warm southern US, which is rather seasonal but not cold enough.

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