Strong Wx System Northern US This Weekend But Bearish Before & After

Written by on October 7, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, October 7:   The weekend weather data maintained a rather bearish overall US pattern the next two weeks apart from a weather system tracking across the northern US late this week through the weekend. At the end of last week, the GFS was colder than the European model for the 15-day forecast. Over the weekend, the GFS lost 7 HDD’s, while the European model added 4-5 HDD’s. This essentially puts them much closer together, while proving the GFS was too cold and the European model too warm. Overall, they’re both are quite bearish this week, near neutral late this week into the following week due to the cool shot across then northern US, then back to bearish October 17-21st. Overall, no major changes as it will take widespread and prolonged colder than normal temperatures to flip weather sentiment bullish when considering summer heat is essentially over. Since the weekend data failed to trend colder for the 10-16 day period, this could be reason if prices open lower.
 

Mon-Thu: Rather light demand this week with the southern US becoming quite comfortable from Texas to the Southeast as highs of 70s and 80s arrive in place of 90s. There will be weak cooling across the northern US, but not quite cold enough.


 

Fri-Mon: A colder weather system will track across the northern US late this week through the weekend for a bump in natioal demand as lows drop into the 20s to lower 40s with it, aiding a bump in natinoal heating demand.

 

October 16-21: A rather boring pattern returns arond October 16 as higher pressures build over the northern US, while still quite comfortable across the southern US.

 

Comparison of GFS vs European models. Both are bearish but GFS does have a little more demand this coming weekend.

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