Strong Polar Blasts Still on Track

Written by on January 16, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Wednesday, January 16: The overnight weather data was mixed with the GFS model a little milder trending, although countered by the European model trending colder. No major changes overall with both showing frigid polar blasts advancing into the US beginning this weekend and lasting through the end of the month, just with a brief milder break Jan 23-24th. The net result will be to again increase deficits, but only after this Thursday’s EIA report shows a huge improvement as it’s likely to print more than 100 Bcf lighter than the 5-year average. Strong volatility has returned with hourly 5-10¢ moves again becoming common, making it challenging for timing entry. Most important, the overnight data is still quite frigid, especially due to the colder trending European model. Therefore, if prices were to resume rallying, a very cold late January pattern would likely be the reason given.  Images below highlight the coming pattern the next two weeks.

Wednesday: The overnight weather data was mixed with the GFS model a little milder trending although countered by the European model trending colder. No major changes overall with both showing frigid polar blasts advancing into the US beginning this weekend and lasting through the end of the month, just with a brief milder break Jan 23-24th.

 

Weekend frigid cold shot.

 

Very cold air into the US this weekend.

 

Milder break around Jan 23-24.

 

Strong cold shots continue to close out the month.

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