Strong July Heat Remains In Forecast

Written by on July 7, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, July 7:   Aug’20 nat gas futures rocketed higher Monday by 9¢, aided by hot US weather patterns holding through mid-July.  There were several major announcements over the weekend that could have also influenced yesterday’s trade, highlighted by Berkshire Hathaway buying a $10 Billion stake in nat gas infrastructure from Dominion Energy and Dominion Energy and Duke Energy cancelling building of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline.  Weather appeared to get the upper hand in yesterday’s trade despite bearish weekend production trends and LNG feedgas remaining very weak at just over 3 Bcf/day.  The overnight weather data was very little changed and remained quite hot the next 15-days with national CDD’s solidly above/hotter versus normal, especially July 16-22 as upper high pressure dominates much of the US with widespread heat and humidity that will push temperatures into the 90s and 100s and the Heat Index into the dangerous 100-120°F range.  How long this heat lasts of great interest and we expect it will last through at least?

This weekend will bring very hot conditions over the Southwest, Texas, and S. Plains with highs easily into the 100s. However, a cooler trending system over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will drop highs into the 70s and 80s for regionally lighter demand.

 

Temperatures for this weekend will be quite hot Texas and surrounding states and also very warm with near 90s along the East Coast. But there is cooler air into the G. Lakes and Ohio Valley.

 

A big hot ridge is still forecast to rule much of the US July 15-22 for very strong national demand as highs of 90s and 100s combine with high humidity for dangerous Heat Index values.

 

Our latest GFS vs EC data shows both solidly hot with above normal CDD’s the next 15-days but with the EC hotter by a little bit.

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