Start of May Pattern: Weak Cooling Northeast US, Getting Hotter Southwest to Plains

Written by on April 22, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Wednesday, April 22:  A series of weak cool shots will sweep across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast into the start of May, with one arriving currently tracking through and a second to follow this weekend. These systems are far from frigid but will still drop lows into the 20s to 40s for modest heating demand. Texas and the South will be warm going forward with highs of 70s to lower 90s for light early season heating demand.   The West will be see mild conditions across the Northwest, hot over the Southwest, while comfortable elsewhere with highs of 60s to 80s.  Where the weather data added demand over the past 24-hours is by showing stronger heat over the Southwest and Plains/W. Texas in early May as highs of 80s to 90s become widespread, including 100s across the Southwest.  Overall, demand has been added into the start of May through the gaining of both HDD’s and CDD’s but still not quite hot or cold enough overall to be considered bullish.  Nat gas prices have seen strong moves higher and lower the past few weeks and that’s likely to continue.

 

The upper pattern to start May is forecast to show weak cool shots continuing into the Northeast US but with a hot ridge strengthening over the Southwest into the Plains.

 

The early May pattern favors weak cool shots continuing across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.  At the same time, strong upper high pressure will over the Southwest US with highs of upper 80s to 100s, hottest over Phoenix and Las Vegas, with 90s into West Texas.  Essentially, we will get a better mix of heating and cooling needs as CDD’s gain in coverage and late season HDD’s slowly fade.

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