Pattern Flip During Second Half of Week

Written by on May 13, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments


Monday, May 13: A weather system and associated cool front will sweep across the Ohio Valley and Northeast the next few days with areas of showers but with highs of only upper 40s and 50s.  However, cooling recently pushed into Texas, the South, and Southeast for very comfortable upper 70s to lower 80s for lighter demand, although increasing during the second half of the week as high pressure strengthens with highs of upper 80s and 90s gaining.   This will be countered as high pressure also building across the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic with highs warming into the very comfortable 70s and 80s for light demand.  Overall, national demand will be near normal the next couple days, then easing below normal Wed-Sun, just rotating regions of the country that will be the primary drivers of demand.  The West into the Plains will be unsettled with showers and thunderstorms, resulting in lighter demand from Las Vegas to Phoenix but offset by stronger demand across the chillier Northwest. Production was off recent highs last week, making it likely to be closely watched by the markets how much it has rebounded since.  Simply put, the nat gas markets are likely to view the data as little changed to adding just a slight amount of demand during the weekend break.   As far as weather sentiment;  slightly bearish the next several days, then increasingly bearish late this week through late May as weather patterns fail to become hot enough other than a few day here or there. Of great interest to Monday’s trade will be if bulls are able to hold $2.62.

Monday’s Weather Set Up


Highs Monday: Cool Northeast US but comfortable southern US.


A big pattern change during the second half of the week as the southern US gets a bit hot, but now with the northern US very comfortable from Chicago to NYC with 70s to lower 80s.


Pattern remains slightly hot across the southern US in late May, while mostly comfortable across the northern US. The West will be unsettled with a mix of mild and warm.

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