Overnight Weather Data Trends Milder, Prices Drop

Written by on December 27, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Friday, December 27: Feb’20 nat gas futures closed sharply higher Thursday by 9¢. The weather data didn’t trend notably colder to justify such gains, so we look to other reasons, such as expiration of Jan’20 contracts that induced a short squeeze. However, prices dropped sharply lower overnight, and likely due to both the GFS and European models losing demand, especially the European that was much milder trending, losing 20 HDD’s and not nearly as cold with a Jan 6-8th cold shot into the northern US. The GFS also lost demand but was still rather chilly Jan 6-8th. But after the GFS has performed so poorly over the past month, we mentioned colder patterns were only to be believed if the European model was also on board. And now it isn’t.

The European model is now a bit milder vs the GFS model and quite bearish overall besides a cold shot Jan 6-8, but it has trended less impressive.


The European model trended much milder overnight, as shown by the green line under the previous runs 12 and 24-hours ago.


Still some colder air into the northern US Jan 6-8, however, milder trending. See image below.


Milder trends overnight were focused over Jan 5-10 with less cold air into the northern and eastern US, as shown in this 24-hour trend image for Jan 7.

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