Much More Comfortable US Pattern 1st Half of Sept

Written by on August 31, 2021 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, August 31:  National demand will ease to the lightest levels in months the next several days as weather systems impact the northern US, while rains from Ida spreads across the East. Locally strong demand continues from California to Texas due hot high pressure producing highs of 90s to 100s.  The overnight data held slight hotter trends for this weekend as high pressure springs back after Ida exits with highs of 80s to 90s gaining ground over much of the US. However, stronger fall-like cool fronts are still expected into the Midwest/Great Lakes next week through mid-Sept, where national demand will again become light as perfect highs of 70s and 80s rules most of the US besides 90s across California and the Southwest.  As expected, huge daily price moves continue w/Oct’21 contracts plummeting 30¢ Monday off overnight highs.  Impacts from Hurricane Ida continue with Gulf of Mexico production down 2 Bcf Monday, although offset by lost demand from widespread power outages across the South. How long it takes for production and power to be restored will be closely watched by the nat gas markets.

The pattern this week is much more comfortable across the northern and eastern US, aided by rains from remnants of Ida.


 

National demand will drop to much lighter levels this week as highs of 70s to lower 80s rules most of the northern and eastern US., although still hot over portions of the Southwest to Texas and up the Plains.

 

After a minor bump in demand this weekend, national demand will drop again to very light levels next week as most of the northern and eastern halves of the US experience comfortable highs of 70s and 80s.


 

The graph from our Live HDD/CDD data from the GFS and EC forecast a much lighter demand pattern the next 15-days besides a minor bump this weekend.

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