Active Weather To Keep Weekly Nat Gas Builds In Check

Written by on April 17, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments
Active Weather To Keep Coming Weekly Storage Builds In Check

 

 

The weekly nat gas storage report came in with a build of only +24 Bcf, which was below estimates.  We are not shocked as there were several fairly impressive weather systems that influenced the nations weather during the period, including one that brought chilly conditions deep into the South.  The markets apparently thought the number was bullish as it rocketed significantly higher on the news.  The coming weather patterns favor more of the same as numerous weather systems track across the US to close out the month.  In fact, we said the nat gas markets may have a couple cold surprises in store for it and that should play out as a fairly impressive cold blast arrives around the 27th and should impact much of the central and eastern US with much cooler than normal temperatures.  Oh and have we yet to mention it’s likely additional storms will drop out of southern Canada during the first week of May?  The active pattern we were expecting played out for April continues to do so and we think May very likely has some bigger surprises in store.  Keep in mind, the longer the cool weather plays out into May, the quicker the jump from cooling degrees to heating degrees will take place.  This will shorten the shoulder season and keep the number of weeks of +100 Bcf injections to the lower end.  Clearly with supplies currently 1.0 Tcf below normal and with the coming active weather, market prices should be supported and any significant sell offs should be bought.  At least that’s the way we see it until weather conditions favor a prolonged period of mild conditions setting up over the central and eastern US, and we don’t see that happening any time soon.   The bottom line is supplies will not get above 1.0 Tcf until May with a few surprises still in store.   The following images highlight the important weather features for the rest of April.

 

A weak coll front will move across the northern US over the coming days while a weak weather system over the Gulf Coast leads to showers and isolated thunderstorms while keeping conditions slightly cooler than normal.  High pressure will build into the Plains out of the Southwest early next week with a nice warm several day warm up.

A weak co0l front will move across the northern US over the coming days while a weak weather system over the Gulf Coast leads to showers and isolated thunderstorms with conditions slightly cooler than normal. High pressure will build into the Plains out of the Southwest early next week with a nice several day warm up.

 

Lows Friday morning will remain chilly across the northern US where a weak cold front will move through with some light showers. Lows in the 20s and 30s are expected over much of the highest use states of the Midwest and Northeast.

Lows Friday morning will remain chilly across the northern US where a weak cold front will move through with some light showers. Lows in the 20s and 30s are expected over much of the highest use states of the Midwest and Northeast.

 

Early next week the ridge will start to expand out into the Plains and Midwest.  But on cue a fresh weak system will knock it down over the Great Lakes and Northeast and keep conditions near or slightly cooler than normal.  Also note the big trough of low pressure moving into the western US.  Once that comes out and tracks into the central US it will lead to some exciting active weather.

Early next week the ridge will start to expand out into the Plains and Midwest. But on cue a fresh weak system will knock it down over the Great Lakes and Northeast and keep conditions near or slightly cooler than normal. Also note the big trough of low pressure moving into the western US. Once that comes out and tracks into the central US it will lead to some exciting active weather the following weekend.

 

Well we said that there would be a few cold surprises in store for the nat gas markets in late April and the forecast models are finally coming around to bringing a nice cold blast around the 27th of the month which has the potential to push deep into the central US.

Well we said that there would be a few cold surprises in store for the nat gas markets in late April and the forecast models are finally coming around to bringing a nice cold blast around the 27th of the month which has the potential to push deep into the central US.

 

 

 

 

Leave a Comment