Mix of Chilly & Hot Early This Week, Then Bearish Pattern

Written by on September 8, 2020 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, September 8:   Going into the weekend, we mentioned the weather data likely had gotten too bearish for the Sept 11-18th period as both the GFS and European models were forecasting below normal TDD’s.  As expected, the weekend weather data did add some demand with both the GFS and European models gaining 5-8 TDD’s.  While the data did add a little demand, no major changes as the Sept 11-20 period is still rather bearish, just not quite as bearish as the data showed Friday due to the addition of several CDD’s across the southern US.  As far as details, hot temperatures continue over California and areas of the West with highs of 90s to 100s.  It’s also very warm to hot across S. Texas, the Southeast, and up the East Coat with highs of 80s to 90s.  To the colder side, a strong early season weather systems and cool shot with rain and snow is currently sweeping across the Rockies, Midwest, and Plains with highs of only 40s to 70s for early season HDD’s.  But again, while national TDD’s are above normal this week on a mix of HDD’s and CDD’s, we expect HDD’s won’t translate to much heating demand being so early in the season.  After cool shots fade late in the week, a rather comfortable US pattern is expected Sept 11-20 with widespread highs of 70s and 80s, and only limited coverage of 60s and 90s for light national demand.  Finally, there are several tropical systems over the Atlantic, but none pose any short term threat.

 

Rain and snow into the Rockies and Plains today, while hot over the West Coast.

 

Pattern early this week has an unseasonably strong cool shot into the Rockies and Plains for some early season HDD’s. Although, this early in the season won’t translate to as much demand.

 

September 11-20: A rather bearish pattern with much of the US comfortable with highs of 70s and 80s and only locally 60s or 90s.

 

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