Mix of Chilly & Hot Across US This Week, Then Not Hot or Cold Enough After

Written by on September 30, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, September 30: The weekend weather data added a little demand through next weekend but lost demand for the second week of October. Statistically, the GFS lost 5 TDD’s (HDD+CDD’s) for the coming 15-day forecast, while the European model added 3 TDD’s. This actually puts both major models much closer together with nearly identical HDD/CDD totals after there were differences between the two late last week. Overall, no major changes with still rather strong demand this week due to chilly conditions across the West and N. Plains combining with very warm to hot conditions across the South, Southeast, and up the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The Midwest and Northeast will cool late this week as a weather systems sweeps through for stronger heating demand, while southern US maintains a very warm ridge. So yet again, even though CDD/HDD totals will be solidly above normal the next 7-days, the resultant build will still struggle to drop under the 5-year normal due to a woefully oversupplied market. What’s likely most important, the second week of October trended bearish and lost demand as the southern US becomes very comfortable. There will be a cool shot across the northern US Oct 7-8th for modest heating needs, but it’s now the southern US where demand won’t be quite strong enough as the upper ridge weakens. Prices are again lower today and the weekend data didn’t help.
 

Highs next several days are chilly across portions of the West but very warm to hot from Texas to the Southeast and up the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


 

Pattern next several days with trough over West and very strong ridge for this late in the year across South & East. Graph shows national forecast CDD/HDD totals from the GFS and European model datasets. Close to hot and cold enough this week but not nearly hot or cold enough after.

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