Milder Trends Lead to Strong Selling

Written by on November 26, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Tuesday, November 26:  Dec’19 and Jan’19 futures opened higher after the weekend break but then dropped sharply when the early Monday weather data trended notably milder for the start of December. Monday’s weather data gained several HDD’s back, although the latest overnight data trended back milder with the GFS losing 3-4 HDD’s but with the European model losing a hefty 16 HDD’s. While there will be strong cooling sweeping across the country later this week through December 4th, the amount of cold air won’t be nearly as impressive or widespread as the data had once shown. The overnight data maintained a rather seasonal/unimpressive pattern Dec 5-9th with near to warmer than normal conditions over most of the US besides portions of either the Midwest or Northeast. The latest European model trended much milder than the rest of the data for Dec 5-9th and the nat gas markets most certainly are certainly disappointed to see that with prices down 5¢ overnight. vAs such, it will take considerably colder trends to reverse the damage done by milder trends over the past 24-hours.

 

The weather pattern for today, Tuesday, shows a weather system strengthening with rain and snow over the central US. A second colder system will push into the West the next few days.

 

Cold air will spread across the country this weekend as the western systems track eastward with lows of 0s to 30s for strong demand. However, the amount of cold air isn’t as impressive as it once was.

 

Big losses in HDD’s last night in the European model. 

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