Mild Spell Craters Prices

Written by on December 17, 2018 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, December 17:  Jan’19 nat gas futures closed 30¢ lower Monday, cratering through $4 to close at $3.82.  Prices gapped lower after the weekend break another 20¢ to $3.61, but have recovered modestly.  Milder trending temperatures were seen as the primary reason for strong selling.  The weekend weather data continues to advertise a bearish pattern through Dec 28-29th, then teasing ways colder Canadian air can advance across the border into the northern US Dec 30-Jan 1, but with much more to prove.  Statistics wise, Sunday’s mid-day GFS ensemble lost 16 HDD’s or -23 Bcf in demand compared to Friday’s mid-day run for the Dec 16-28th period. The European model was already much milder than the rest of the data Friday, a little too warm, adding a modest 4 HDD’s back over this same period, but now both very close to each other.  Over the next 15-days, there will still be weather systems with rain and snow, as well as occasional cold shots across the northern US.  However, the main issue remains where the frigid cold pool over Canada won’t get tapped effectively by US weather systems, keeping lighter than normal national demand in place.

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