Mid December Weather Pattern

Written by on December 3, 2013 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Mid December Pattern Uncertain & Sure To Whipsaw

The weather pattern across the US around the middle of December will be in a transition period after this latest Arctic blast finally comes to an end in about 10-12 days.  The first image shows what a majority of the market players will hear as what to expect around December 17th.  A fairly zonal jet stream across much of the US with cold air retreating into Canada and milder storms into the west coast.  If this actually played out, natural gas and heating demand would ease across much of the southern and central US for several days.  However, this solution is not likely to be the way it truly happens as there is still opportunity for additional reinforcing cold shots to push into the US from Canada.  Once the cold becomes established after this upcoming outbreak, it will be more stubborn than the models and national forecasts expect.

 

The bottom image shows a bunch of altering solutions on where the cold and warm air will be on the December 17th with each showing markedly different ways the pattern plays out.  What the latest suite of meteorological data shows is what we already knew, the models are having a tough time with the second half of December weather pattern and the players are going to be pulling their hair out hearing different scenarios.   As an aside for the advanced weather followers, all the latest hype about the MJO coming around will gradually fizzle as the latest batch of tropical convection does in the coming weeks.

 

Weather Pattern around December 17th which the market will likely be the one the market is pricing in.  But in reality, there are many different ways it can play out.

Weather Pattern around December 17th which the market will likely be the one the market is pricing in. But in reality, there are many different ways it can play out.

 

Numerous potential forecast solutions for the middle of December.  Each computer run yields different results, causing the "experts" frustration in trying to pick the correct one.

Numerous potential forecast solutions for December 17th. Each computer run yields different results, causing the “experts” frustration in trying to pick the correct one. Image shows where temperatures will be warmer or colder than normal.

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