May Weather Pattern Update

Written by on April 29, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments
Active Weather Pattern Through Mid May

 

The latest weather data continues to come in line with our expectations of active weather continuing through the middle of May. The massive weather system currently impacting the central and eastern US has little steering it and will stall for another day before gradually exiting off the eastern US coast Thursday.  Another weather system and reinforcing cool blast will hit the Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday into Monday with another round of showers but more importantly a fresh dose of cool Canadian air over some of the highest use northern nat gas and heating demand states as lows drop into the 20s and 30s. Over the southern Plains, high pressure will expand early next week and lead to a nice warm up where afternoon temperatures reach the 80s. A battle will take place over the north-central US all next week as cool Canadian air and warm Southern Plains air collide with neither having much luck pushing the other around. This will finally happen when a weather system tracks out of the western US late in the week and develops into another strong Spring storm that will push the ridge back to the desert Southwest and allow the active weather pattern to continue well into mid May. The pattern is such that there will never be warm enough conditions lasting long enough over the central and eastern US for a hefty build in supplies to occur. This should keep supplies on track to remain 1.0 Tcf below the 5 year average well into May and possibly early June. The following images highlight important weather features in play over the coming two weeks.

 

 

A strong spring storms continues to hammer the eastern US and will do so for a couple more days as it stalls in place. The water vapor loop is live and shows a massive circulation and thunderstorms over the Southeast.

 

Temperatures over the next few days will be quite chilly compared to normal as overnight lows drop into the 30s and 40s deep into the South.  The image shows lows Thursday morning which is very similar to Wednesday.

Temperatures over the next few days will be quite chilly compared to normal as overnight lows drop into the 30s and 40s deep into the South. The image shows lows Thursday morning which is very similar to Wednesday.

 

Sunday and into Monday a weather system will track through the Great Lakes and Northeast with showers and even some snowflakes.  More importantly a cool blast will push over many high population cities in the Northeast with lows getting into the 20s and 30s.  This will lead to modest to locally high nat gas demand.

Sunday and into Monday a weather system will track through the Great Lakes and Northeast with showers and even some snowflakes. More importantly a cool blast will follow over many high population cities in the Northeast with lows getting into the 20s and 30s. This will lead to modest to locally high nat gas demand.  Also note the surge of warm conditions over the Plains as high pressure builds in temporarily for a nice warm up.  Off the West coast is a new weather system that will move into the middle of the country later next week and bring a return to an active pattern.

 

The jet stream around May 13th is very similar to what has taken place the past month with cool trough moving through the northern US and at times weather systems beating down a strong ridge over the Southwest.  This will keep the active pattern going through the middle of the month

The jet stream around May 13th is very similar to what has taken place the past month with cool trough moving through the northern US and at times weather systems beating down a strong ridge over the Southwest. This will keep the active pattern going through the middle of the month.  A pattern such as this is not favorable for hefty nat gas builds as too much of the US will be experiencing some need for overnight nat gas and heating demand.

 

There are still many ways the pattern can play out around May 14th but the bias should be toward a trough over the eastern US and a ridge over the Southwest.  The image shows potential weather model solutions on where cooler or warmer than normal conditions will set up.  Many have come around to our forecasts of cooler than normal for the Midwest and eastern US.  There will be some fine tuning to come over the next week as the models struggle during tricky spring weather.

There are still many ways the pattern can play out around May 14th but the bias should be toward a trough over the eastern US and a ridge over the Southwest. The image shows potential weather model solutions on where cooler or warmer than normal conditions will set up. Many have come around to our forecasts of cooler than normal for the Midwest and eastern US. There will be some fine tuning to come over the next week as the models struggle during tricky spring weather.

 

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