Lighter National Demand This Week, Back to Strong Next Week.

Written by on August 2, 2021 in NatGasWeather - No comments

August 2:  Lighter national demand will occur this week as weather systems with showers and thunderstorms sweep across the eastern ½ of the US w/highs of 70s to 80s, coolest across the Great Lakes and Northeast.  There will be regionally strong demand over the West, Texas, and Plains as upper high pressure brings highs of upper 80s to 100s.   However, the weekend weather data was hotter trending and remains impressive enough for a bullish stance for August 7-15th as a strong upper ridge builds across the eastern US with highs of upper 80s to potentially mid-90s.  At the same time, most of the rest of the US will be very warm to hot, aiding strong national demand.  This very warm to hot 7-15-day pattern is likely to extend into the 16-18-day period, keeping the back end of the 15-day forecast bullish biased.  The tropics remain quiet with no significant threats this week but should get increasingly active soon.

The pattern this work week will bring lighter demand as weather systems track across the eastern 1/2 of the US with showers, cooling highs into the 70s to lower 80s.

 

Highs this week will be rather comfortable for early August across the eastern 1/2 of the US with plenty of 70s to mid-80s. It will still be hot over the West, Plains and into Texas with highs of upper 80s to 100s. But with the eastern 1/2 of the US cooler than normal, national demand is only moderate.

 

Monday: The weekend weather data maintained much lighter demand for this week due to weather systems stalling over the eastern ½ of the US, cooling highs into the 70s to lower 80s. However, the weather data trended hotter for the 8-15 day period with the GFS up 10 CDDs and the up EC 5 CDDs. Hotter trends were focused over the eastern ½ of the US for August 9-13th as an unseasonably strong upper ridge is favored and where it would likely be hot enough to result in highs of 90s across most major East Coast cities (image above). As such, the coming 15-day forecast remains bearish on the front 5-days but bullish for the 7-15-day period after hotter weekend trends.


 

Our Live HDD/CDD data shows national CDDs to be below normal this work week, then increasing above normal as a hot pattern sets up over most of the US.

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