Lighter Demand Early This Week

Written by on August 31, 2020 in NatGasWeather - 1 Comment

Monday, August 31:    Hurricane Laura wreaked havoc on the Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana last week, causing a 2-3 Bcf/day drop in nat gas production, but also with a 2.5 Bcf drop in LNG feedgas due to both Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG sites shutting down. LNG feedgas for today remains subdued at only 2.76 Bcf, while production has started to recover at a comparatively faster pace.  How long Cameron and Sabine remain offline will be closely watched by the markets.  Regarding the weekend weather data, as we mentioned midday Friday, the GFS and European models likely got too bearish, which they did by both gaining 6-8 TDD’s.  However, a decent portion of the gained TDD’s are from cooler trends across the central and northern US Sept 6-10 through added HDD’s.  Although, this early in the season, HDD’s won’t translate to much heating demand, making gains in TDD’s appear more impressive than they really are.  No changes overall with the timing of major weather features to impact the US the next 15-days holding, with only the Sept 2-4 period considered hot enough, and the September 6-12 period having CDD’s fade and being replaced by early season HDD’s.   Also of note, there’s several tropical waves that need monitoring, but none currently pose much threat, including one drifting off the Florida Coast Monday.
 

Highs today will be comfortable over much of the northern and east-central US for lighter demand.


 

Pattern for the middle of this week as weather systems impact much of the northern and central US for lighter demand.


 

National demand will stage a modest rebound late in the week as high pressure builds into the East, while still very warm to hot over the southern and western US.


 

Cooler trends for next week as weather systems push deep into the Midwest and central US for a few HDD’s. While the data added TDD’s over the weekend, the markets prefer CDD’s instead of HDD’s.

One Comment on "Lighter Demand Early This Week"

  1. Anand Sirwani August 31, 2020 at 11:52 am ·

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