Late Summer Heat Continues Into Mid-September

Written by on September 9, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Monday, September 9: We’ve been mentioning the theme the past several weeks has been for demand in the 11-15 day forecast to be added once they rolled to the front 10 days This again occurred over the weekend break where both the GFS and European models added nearly 10 CDD’s, focused on hotter trends across the eastern US next weekend into the following week (Sept 13-18th). The data remains bearish for the 11-15 day period, although the nat gas markets are likely to be skeptical since demand has been continuously added the past several weeks. So again, while the data has trended hotter and could be reason if prices open higher, it still isn’t expected to result in notably smaller than normal builds, highlighting widespread late summer heat also won’t be able to overcome record production.
 

Highs this week will be above normal over the southern and eastern halves of the US with highs of 80s and 90s. Cooler exceptions across the Northwest to Upper Midwest as weather systems bring showers.


 

Mid-September Upper Pattern


 

Comparison of GFS vs European model datasets for daily national CDD/HDD totals. Hotter than normal the next ten days then cooling.

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