Late January Pattern Update

Written by on January 13, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Cold, Wintry Weather To Tighten Grip On The Central & Eastern US The Rest Of January

 

As we have been forecasting for some time, cold and wintry weather will return to the central and eastern US over the coming days.  The number of reinforcing cold blasts to come over the rest of January appears infinite, each within a day or so apart.  Timing each of these outbreaks more than a week out is futile, as there is plenty of timing issues that are sure to occur.  With that said, the pattern is clear.  A massive trough of cold, wintry weather will continue over much of the central and eastern US for the next 1-2 weeks, possibly longer.  This will bring sustained moderate to high draws in nat gas and heating demand over much of the central and eastern US.  The first couple images focus on a fairly potent cold outbreak today and Wednesday, bringing hard freezes again to the Southeast.   The third image shows the weather pattern on January 20th.  This looks to be one of the milder days of the coming two weeks as the pattern flattens briefly as cold air leaves the Northeast, while the next Arctic blast is lurking in southern Canada to again advance deep into the US.  The fourth image shows the jet stream trying to flatten out the West coast ridge, but is only able to do so for a few days as the ridge again amplifies back up into Canada and a cold trough returns to the East.  We expect the meteorological data to struggle timing weather systems and reinforcing shots of cold, but it through the noise, the pattern is quite clear;   Cold, wintry weather will continue for the foreseeable future over much of the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic.  At times, temperatures much colder than normal are expected to push deep into the southern Plains and Southeast, providing hard freezes and potential icy/frozen precipitation. (The first couple of images are from yesterday’s post but still valid.)

 

 

Cold Outbreak affecting the central and eastern US January 14th-16th.  This will bring another round of chilly temperatures and above normal nat gas and energy use.  Freezing conditions are also expected to briefly push into much of the Southeast as well.

Cold Outbreak affecting the central and eastern US January 14th-16th. This will bring another round of chilly temperatures and above normal nat gas and energy use. Freezing conditions are also expected to briefly push into much of the Southeast as well. Shaded are temps at ~4kt ft in Celsius. Dark Blues and purples highlight were the very cold conditions will be as it sweeps through.

Temperatures Wednesday morning will again be below freezing for much of the southeastern US as the next cold blast pushes through.  Florida will yet again see a hard freeze across the north.  While it is chilly, it is not nearly as cold as the recent outbreaks with much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast at least getting above freezing during the day.  Left image is lows Wed, right are high temps.

Temperatures Wednesday morning will again be below freezing for much of the southeastern US as the next cold blast pushes through. Florida will yet again see a hard freeze across the north. While it is chilly, it is not nearly as cold as the recent outbreaks with much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast at least getting above freezing during the day. Left image are lows Wed morning, right are highs.

 

The warmest day of the coming week looks to be Monday the 20th.  It is the only day the flow is somewhat flat and more less west to east.  However, there is another cold blast over south-central Canada poised to push in by Tuesday of next week.

The warmest day of the coming week looks to be Monday the 20th. It is the only day the flow is somewhat flat and more less west to east. However, there is another cold blast over south-central Canada poised to push in by Tuesday of next week. Image shows Heights/pressure at 18,000ft, with spin in the atmosphere at this level shaded.  More spin, often leads to greater lift, resulting in precipitation.

 

January pattern around the 22nd.  The jet stream was trying to push toward the West coast with brief warming over the central US.

January pattern around the 22nd. The jet stream was trying to push toward the West coast with brief warming over the central US.

The pattern may not hold very long as there is still a lot of data that wants to just push the West coast ridge right back where it was and allow cold to flow back into the Midwest and Northeast.

The pattern may not hold very long as there is still a lot of data that wants to just push the West coast ridge right back where it was and allow cold to flow back into the Midwest and Northeast around January 25th. This would continue above normal draws into the Southeast.

 

The image shows the weather pattern around the 26th of January and where the cold and warm air is located.  There is brutally cold Arctic air over much of Canada and extending deep into the central and eastern US.  The West coast is quite mild under this pattern.  We are not saying the pattern will play out exactly like this, but highlighting that it favors additional cold outbreaks for much of the US which looks likely to last through the end of January.

The image shows the weather pattern around the 26th of January and where the cold and warm air is located. There is brutally cold Arctic air over much of Canada and extending deep into the central and eastern US. The West coast is quite mild under this pattern. We are not saying the pattern will play out exactly like this, but highlighting that it favors additional cold outbreaks for much of the US which looks likely to last through the end of January.

 

The image shows potential scenarios on where warmer and colder conditions are expected around January 26th.  The data has been consistent in keeping cold over the eastern half of the US and warm over the western half.  But there are still many things to be ironed out, such as timing fast moving weather systems and reinforcing cold outbreaks.  That's the easy part.  The harder part is getting the overall large scale pattern correct several weeks out. Blues are colder than normal conditions for that day, oranges and yellows show warmer than normal.

The image shows potential scenarios on where warmer and colder conditions are expected around January 26th. The data has been consistent in keeping cold over the eastern half of the US and warm over the western half. But there are still many things to be ironed out, such as timing fast moving weather systems and reinforcing cold outbreaks. That’s the easy part. The harder part is getting the overall large scale pattern correct several weeks out knowing cold is coming. Blues are colder than normal conditions for that day, oranges and yellows show warmer than normal.

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