Interesting Round of Overnight Data

Written by on October 31, 2018 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Wednesday, October 31st: Interesting round of overnight weather data as GFS ensembles were notably colder for second week of November, as the image depicts with HDD’s increasing above normal. The European model was also a little colder Nov 9-12, but then was milder on the set up Nov 13-15 compared to the cooler GFS for these days.  The nat gas markets will be watching to see if the mid-day GFS holds this colder pattern Nov 8-15, or if it backs off to be more like the milder European Nov 13-15.  The afternoon European model will also be closely watched to see if it also holds the cooler Nov 9-12 trend, but keeps the mild US pattern Nov 13-15.  Prices were modestly higher overnight, but have given back some of those gains over the past couple hours.  (Green line is 6z GFS run that was even colder than the overnight 0z run, blue line, but with both now above the 30-year average). 

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