Hot Weather Pattern 1st Half of July

Written by on July 1, 2020 in NatGasWeather - 1 Comment

Wednesday, July 1:  The overnight weather data was little changed with a very warm to hot US pattern holding for the next 15-days, just with the European model remaining hotter/more bullish compared to the GFS by more than 10 CDD’s.  Very warm to hot conditions will rule the central and southern US the rest of the week with highs of 80s and 90s, 100s Southwest.  Cooler exceptions continue over the Northwest and New England due to stalled weather systems for locally lighter demand.   The pattern will remain very warm to hot over most of the US for the Fourth of July weekend with slightly cooler exceptions again focused over the far northwest and northeast corners.  There will also be a slow moving weather system over the South or Southeast that will trigger heavy showers and thunderstorms, although still very warm with highs near 90°F, while also humid for relatively strong demand.  The pattern is forecast to become most bullish July 7-15 as upper high pressure increases in strength and size, dominating most of the US with highs of 90s, while also becoming quite humid to push Heat Indexes into the very uncomfortable 95-105°F range.  The European model remains a little hotter/bullish compared to the GFS with the strength of the upper ridge for next week and beyond, but both are solidly hotter vs normal for strong to very strong national demand.  Again, the focus is on how long this hot US pattern can last and we expect through at least July 16th.   The question for today’s trade is whether participants view patterns as hot enough to continue the weather driven rally after a 20¢ move Mon-Tue?  The answer appears to be no with prices down 7-8 cents, likely due to LNG feedgas/exports being reported at a very weak 3 Bcf for today.

 

Wednesday’s Weather Map:. Very warm over most of the US besides the Northwest and New England where weather systems are stalled.

 

Highs today will be very warm to hot besides the Northwest and New England where weather systems have stalled. Strong national demand with much of the rest of the US in the upper 80s and 90s.

 

Fourth of July: Very warm to hot over most of the US with highs of upper 80s to 100s, hottest Southwest. The South and Southeast will see a weak weather system stall with heavy showers but still very warm with highs near 90F and quite humid. Overall, strong national demand over the weekend.


 

July 7-15: The pattern for the second week of July will be very warm to hot over most of the US as strong upper high pressure rules. This will lead to widespread 90s+ with only the far northwest and northeast corners comfortable.

 

8-15 Day Outlook: Very warm to hot for most of the US besides the Northwest and far northeast corner.

One Comment on "Hot Weather Pattern 1st Half of July"

  1. John Horton July 1, 2020 at 11:53 am ·

    I noted a change in the CDD between yesterday’s chart (July 11/12 of approx 16 TDD) and today’s chart for the same period at approx 13 TDD for same days….could this be the reason for the pricing falling? Am I missing something between the two charts?

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