GFS Trends Much Colder Past 24-Hours, European Model Disagrees

Written by on December 11, 2019 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Wednesday, December 11:  The overnight GFS model trended further colder by a hefty 20 HDD’s, seeing a frigid cold shot push into the northern US next week, with cool conditions then lingering Dec 20-24. However, the European model emphatically disagrees and lost 5-6 HDD’s compared to Tuesday data and remains quite bearish. So here we are yet again with the GFS trending much colder than normal and adding a massive 38 HDD’s over the past 24-hours and now 40 HDD’s colder versus the European model for the next 15-days. It seems like we’ve seen this movie before where the GFS advertises frigid cold only to reverse course and trend back milder, as it’s done twice already this December. Maybe the GFS will be correct this time, but the nat gas markets are likely going to want the European model to be solidly on board if they are to believe it.  What will the 12z midday data show and will the GFS backtrack on cold or will the European model need to play catch up.

Where the GFS is much colder starts Dec 16-17 by seeing a frigid ball of cold pushing into the US, as the image depicts. The European model sees this cold shot but doesn’t push it into the US.


Back to huge weather model differences between the GFS and European model after the GFS trended nearly 40 HDD’s colder over the past 24-hours. The GFS added 20 HDD’s along, although the European model emphatically disagreed overnight and lost 4-5 HDD’s and held a rather bearish overall pattern. The GFS has advertised two frigid cold shots already in December that never came to fruition. So will this time be different?

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