GFS Model Back to Being Colder Than Rest of Wx Data

Written by on November 7, 2018 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Wednesday, November 7:   In today’s daily report we mentioned how the overnight (0z) GFS weather model was colder than the rest of the data, including against the milder European model.  The early morning GFS data didn’t back off on being the coldest model and continues to show cool conditions sneakily holding across the Great Lakes and East Nov 17-22.  This makes the 12z mid-day and afternoon data important to see if the GFS backs off on cold Nov 17-22 to fall better in line with the other models.  Or if the other models again realize the GFS is correct, like it was last week in being the coldest and most consistent on the current series of cold outbreaks.  If the 12z GFS ensemble data is again cold, this will put pressure on the afternoon European model to see if it holds to the milder side or is again forced to concede to the colder GFS.  Below is a table from the early morning GFS Ensemble data showing colder trends as HDD’s remain above normal Nov 17-22.  The second image shows temperatures vs normal around Nov 21-22 from the GFS model with cool trying to hold across the Great Lakes and Northeast.



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