Friday Pattern Update

Written by on January 31, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Active Weather This Weekend Followed By A Strong Mid-Week Storm And Colder Temperatures

 

A very sloppy but active weather pattern is expected this weekend as several weather systems impact different regions of the US with inclement weather.  A stronger storm is still expected Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, which will hammer most of the central and eastern US with areas of moderate to heavy rain and snow.  Several days of below normal conditions will follow late next week as temperatures again drop into the single digits and below zero over much of the highest use nat gas and heating demand states of the northern US.  By next weekend, yet another strong storm should be developing and will likely lead to another round of heavy precipitation for much of the US.  This again will be followed by another round of chilly conditions pushing deep into the US with below normal temperatures again setting up over the northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast.  Thereafter, additional storms are lined up to track across the US in much the same fashion through mid-February.  As each storm approaches the East, a few days of milder conditions will push into the Mid-Atlantic and extend into the Northeast coast at times.  This will keep nat gas and heating draws in the moderate to high range well into the third week of February.  Although we are getting late in the heating season, the weather pattern should continue to support prices as reserves are steadily depleted and remain below the lows of the past 5 years.

 

The storm Tuesday that tracks out of the Plains and into the central US will be quite strong.  Thunderstorms should be expected over the southern US with moderate to heavy snowfall into the colder air over the Midwest and eventually Northeast. The image shows precpitation during a 12 hour period ending Tuesday afternoon.  The transition from dashed red lines to blue is the approximate transition from rain to snow.  Most important to the nat gas and heating markets is the cold air that will follow the storm deep into the central and eastern US late next week which will hold for several days.

The storm Tuesday that tracks out of the Plains and into the central US will be quite strong. Thunderstorms should be expected over the southern US with moderate to heavy snowfall into the colder air over the Midwest and eventually Northeast. The image shows precipitation during a 12 hour period ending Tuesday afternoon. The transition from dashed red lines to blue is the approximate transition from rain to snow. Most important to the nat gas and heating markets is the cold air that will follow the storm deep into the central and eastern US late next week which will hold for several days.

 

We have been mentioning that following next weeks storm some fairly cold air will follow.  While the cold that follows will not be as impressive as the recent cold, it will still bring single digit temperatures  to the highest use states of the northern US.  The cold will push fairly deep into the central and southeastern US with this outbreak, aiding national draws.

We have been mentioning that following next weeks Tue-Wed storm some fairly cold air will follow. While the cold that follows will not be as impressive as the recent cold, it will still bring single digit temperatures to the highest use states of the northern US. The cold will also push fairly deep into the central and southeastern US with this outbreak, aiding national draws.

 

Ahead of Tuesday's storm another round of milder conditions will push into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  The image shows regions of warmer or colder than normal conditions Tuesday.  We expect the models to again be underplaying the amount of warmth that spreads into the Northeast in advance of the storm.  But also note the very cold air over the northwestern and central US that will follow with temperature anomalies 10-30F colder than normal. These temps will push into the Northeast by Thursday.

Ahead of Tuesday’s storm another round of milder conditions will push into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The image shows regions of warmer or colder than normal conditions Tuesday. We expect the models to again be underplaying the amount of warmth that spreads into the Northeast in advance of the storm and we expect a greater area of oranges to show up in future weather maps. But also note the very cold air over the northwestern and central US that will follow with temperature anomalies 10-30F colder than normal. These temps will push into the Northeast by Thursday.

 

 

After the mid-week storm and several days of cold to follow yet another strong storm should likely set up for next weekend. The image shows widespread precipitation developing next Saturday with heavy snow into the colder air and showers and thunderstorms over the southern US.

After the mid-week storm and several days of cold that follows yet another strong storm should likely set up next weekend. The image shows widespread precipitation developing next Sat, Feb 7th with heavy snow into the colder air and showers and thunderstorms over the southern US. This pattern change will give ample opportunity for much of the US to receive precipitation.

 

The pattern after February 10th continues with a very active upper level jet stream tracking from well off the Pacific and over the entire US. This will lead to numerous storms tracking through but also leading to cold conditions over the northern US, continuing moderate to high nat gas and heating demand.

The pattern after February 10th continues with a very active upper level jet stream tracking from well off the Pacific and spanning the entire length of US. This will lead to numerous storms tracking through but also continue the cold conditions over the northern US, keeping moderate to high nat gas and heating draws ongoing.

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