Friday Morning Update On Weekend Storm & Arctic

Written by on December 13, 2013 in NatGasWeather - No comments

We have been mentioning for several days this weekends winter storm is going to be a very close call with major impacts along the Northeast coast. When the low finally develops, it will set up a very heavy precipitation band right near the center of the low. The latest forecast from this morning has the band just barely grazing the coast near New Jersey. The image shows 12 hour precipitation totals going into Sunday morning. A greater than 2.0″ bullseye is right next to the coast. Forecast models are only so good, so just the slightest jog left and this band could be a bit more inland, leading to much greater accumulations and more likely some heavy snowfall weather disruptions.  Most places during this 12 hour period are near or over 0.50″, not counting what falls the previous and following 12 hours, making it easy to see how 6-12″ of snow could easily accumulate across this region.

 

Where the Arctic will be located is in the dark blues and purples.   This is what we think represents the most likely set up by December 22nd. Note the very warm conditions for the eastern US.

Where the Arctic will be located is in the dark blues and purples. This is what we think represents the most likely set up by December 22nd. Note the very warm conditions for the eastern US.

 

As far as the Arctic outbreak, it still is on track to move in around the 20th through the Plains.  Our latest projections bring the cold Air through the northern Rockies on the 20th and then have it sweep through the Midwest and Plains by the 23rd.  The image shows what we think is the most likely scenario to play out around December 22nd.  Anywhere within the bright pink will be under brutally cold temperatures pushing heating demand extremely high.   We have it stall a day or two before getting  into the eastern US on the 23rd and 24gh, allowing a several day reprieve from freezing temperatures.

 

 

12 hour precipitation amounts Sat night through Sunday morning. Note the much greater than 1.0" amounts near the coast toward the colder air.  If that low or band were to shift inland slightly, snow amounts would be quite impressive.

12 hour precipitation amounts Sat night through Sunday morning. Note the much greater than 1.0″ amounts near the coast. If that low or band were to shift inland slightly, snow amounts could be quite impressive.

Leave a Comment