End Of January Pattern Update

Written by on January 7, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

Weather Patterns To See-Saw For Much Of January

 

The weather patterns for the second half of January will be fairly challenging as each week looks to bring a different flavor of weather to the US.  We know the upcoming second week of January will play out quite mild, which we have been forecasting for some time, as a major pattern change takes place.  Temperatures will warm considerably over the coming days and will last through this weekend, significantly easing nat gas and energy demand.  However, as we have been forecasting, fresh batches of cold air will again invade the northern US to start the third week of January.  After the coming warm up, the next cold outbreak should track through the Midwest around the 14th with only modestly cold air and not a very expansive swatch of chilly conditions (first image).  This will open the door for a more impressive one to follow a few days later as a much colder blast is set to push across the Canadian border around the 17th, again impacting much of the central and eastern US (second image).  There are still many details to be ironed out, as the data has yet to fully agree on how much of the US will be affected (third image).

 

After several fresh cold outbreaks for week 3, it looks like there should again be another significant attempt at a pattern change for week 4 where the jet stream tries to again push into the West coast while the central and eastern US again warms to near or above normal (last image).  This would lead significant easing of nat gas and energy use to close out January.  We are not quite convinced this is exactly how it will play out as the ridge off the western US that has been blocking storms for months and has yet to finally give up, and it until it does, the pattern hasn’t changed.  What we are trying to convey is the pattern going into the last week of January again looks favorable for a significant pattern change, much like it is playing out for this week.  We need to see more convincing data for us to completely buy in, but it looks promising.  Therefore, the weather pattern over the US is expected to be quite mild for the coming week, followed by cooling for week 3, and very possibly warming again for all but the western US for week 4.   This see-saw pattern will likely challenge the nat gas markets and players as national forecasts struggle as the meteorological data is sure to provide a lot of uncertainty and whip-sawing of forecast data from one suite of meteorological data to the next.

 

By around January 14th a new cold blast will push into the Midwest.  However, compared to the recent cold, it will only bring a modest cold snap.  The image shows temperatures a few thousand feet off the ground in Celsius.  As you get into the dark blues and purples, temperatures will be quite chilly, but it won't cover a large area.

By around January 14th, a new cold blast will push into the Midwest. However, compared to the recent cold, it will only bring a modest cold snap. The image shows temperatures a few thousand feet off the ground in Celsius. As you get into the dark blues and purples, temperatures will be quite chilly, but it won’t cover a large area.

 

However, by around January 17th, there likely will be a more impressive Arctic blast to push into the Midwest and Northeast.  How far south this one makes it is still a bit uncertain.

However, by around January 17th, there likely will be a more impressive Arctic blast to push into the Midwest and Northeast. How far south this one makes it is still a bit uncertain.

 

 

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on how much of the US will be impacted by fresh cold outbreaks.  This image shows potential ways the pattern plays out and each one is a bit different on the extent of a big eastern US trough.  Although, all solutions are consistent with the trough, they have some things they need to iron out.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on how much of the US will be impacted by fresh cold outbreaks. This image shows potential ways the pattern plays out around January 19th and each one is a bit different on the extent of a big eastern US trough. Although, all solutions are consistent with the trough, they have some things they need to iron out.

 

The weather pattern for the last week of January could undergo another big transitions.  The image shows the jet stream and height/pressure pattern around the 22nd of January.  It is very possible the jet stream finally will push into the west coast, which would bring a big ridge into the central US and would lead to mild conditions for all of the central US, which would likely push into the East.

The weather pattern for the last week of January could undergo another big transition. The image shows the jet stream and height/pressure pattern around the 22nd of January. It is very possible the jet stream finally will push into the west coast, which would bring a big ridge into the central US and lead to mild conditions for all of the central US, which would then likely push into the East for only modest nat gas and energy demand.

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