End Of January Pattern Update

Written by on January 16, 2014 in NatGasWeather - No comments

A Big Pattern Change Could Be In The Offing

 

The pattern for the last week of January looks very similar to what is expected over the coming week as numerous cold outbreaks push into the northern US and advance deep into the Southeast at times. However, we are again seeing signs a significant pattern change is possible to start the first week of February.  It’s clearly a long ways out, but if a stronger jet stream again tries to push toward the West coast, nat gas and heating demand will ease significantly as this would allow a huge ridge of high pressure to build into the central, and eventually eastern US, leading to mild conditions. We need to see a heap more convincing data to suggest it will take place, but it is very possible and could lead to lower nat gas prices down the road if it comes to fruition. This is too far out to be on the big market players radar, so we don’t expect any reaction in the market based on this for at least several days. Until then, the market will continue to hear about cold weather systems impacting the northern and eastern US for the coming week or two.

 

The image shows the jet stream around the 27th of January.  Most importantly is there is very strong jet stream associated with a deep trough of low pressure over the central and eastern US.  This will allow cold doses to continue pushing into the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  High pressure remains over the western US.

The image shows the jet stream around the 27th of January. Most importantly is there is very strong jet stream associated with a deep trough of low pressure over the central and eastern US. This will allow cold doses to continue pushing into the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High pressure remains over the western US.

 

We have been mentioning for several days we were seeing potential for quite a massive cold outbreak that would encompass much of the US around the 27th of January.  That still looks very possible as the forecast data continues to oblige us.

We have been mentioning for several days we were seeing potential for quite a massive cold outbreak that would encompass much of the US around the 27th of January. That still looks very possible as the forecast data continues to oblige us.  It will happen, it’s just a matter of how much of the western and eastern US gets in on the cold.

 

 

Around February 1st the data is starting to come around to a potential pattern change with a stronger jet stream hitting the West coast.  This would bring a big warm up to the central and eastern US, easing nat gas and energy demand.  This pattern has shown up in some flavors briefly, but has yet to hold for more than a few days.  We need to see a quite a bit more convincing data to bite on a longer term pattern change, but there is some potential for it to take place and bears watching.

Around February 1st the data is starting to come around to a potential pattern change with a stronger jet stream hitting the West coast. This would bring a big warm up to the central and eastern US, easing nat gas and energy demand. This pattern has shown up in some flavors briefly, but has yet to hold for more than a few days. We need to see a quite a bit more convincing data to bite on a longer term pattern change, but there is some potential for it to take place and bears watching.

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